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Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · Full time ·Group Stage - 1

Niger vs Lesotho

2 – 1 Full time

38′Daniel Sosah
40′Lehlohonolo Fothoane
45′Oumar Sako
45′T. SefaliT. Lesaoana
45′Itumeleng Kenneth FaleneTeboho Letsema
49′R. Mokokoana
58′Thabo Makhele
60′M. MakhethaThabang Malane
64′Amadou WonkoyeVictorien Adebayor
75′Lehlohonolo FothoaneTholang Makuru
75′neo mokhachaneMolefi Kuzaya Kulehile
78′Ali MohamedAmadou Sabo
79′Kairou AmoustaphaH. Ibrahim
85′Sera Motebang
90′Aboubacar CamaraNajeeb Yakubu
90′O. BadamassiMamane Moustapha Amadou Sabo

Stade Pere-Jego, CasablancaReferee: Fabricio Duarte

Niger 52%
Draw 26%
Lesotho 21%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

8 Shots 14
5 Shots on target 4
51 Possession % 49
1 Corners 5
15 Fouls 20
6 Offsides 3
3 Saves 3
304 Accurate passes 264

Niger vs Lesotho overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Niger vs Lesotho

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNigerDrawLesotho
Model45.1%28.3%26.6%
Market54.5%25.8%19.7%
Final52.1%26.5%21.4%
Edge-9.4%+2.5%+6.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Niger

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.14.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Niger ↓ / Lesotho → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 7% 1 10% 13% 7% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 49%
No goals 8%

Niger and Lesotho expected goals

Niger 1.49
Lesotho 1.14

Total expected goals: 2.63

Niger and Lesotho attack and defence ratings

Niger

Attack 1.25 +25%
Defence 1.37 +37%

Lesotho

Attack 0.74 -26%
Defence 0.98 -2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Niger vs Lesotho: result vs prediction

Niger 2 – 1 Lesotho

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Group Stage - 1 fixtures

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Before and after this match

Niger vs Lesotho markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Niger 52.1% 1.92 -9.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 52.2% 1.91 — —
Both teams to score Yes 52.8% 1.90 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 78.6% 1.27 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 56.1% 1.78 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Niger52.1%
Draw26.5%
Lesotho21.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547.8%
Under 2.552.2%
Both teams to scoreYes52.8%
No47.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)78.6%
12 (either side)73.5%
X2 (draw or away)47.9%
Handicap -1Niger win22.3%
Push (exactly one goal)21.6%
Loss56.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.5%
1-010.0%
2-19.2%

Niger vs Lesotho stats

Niger and Lesotho recent form

newest first
Niger WWWLLW
Lesotho WDWLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Niger vs Lesotho head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Niger vs Lesotho odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 54.5%, draw 25.8%, away 19.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.68 3.64 4.79
Bet365 1.67 3.60 4.20
BetVictor 1.65 3.50 4.80
Betano 1.72 3.60 4.60
Betfair 1.62 3.50 5.00
Marathonbet 1.66 3.64 4.80
Pinnacle 1.61 3.09 4.51
SBO 1.64 3.19 4.04
William Hill 1.73 3.30 4.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.66 ▲ +0.08
X 3.50 ▼ -0.15
2 4.60 ▼ -1.38

7 snapshots recorded, from .