Red Arrows
vs
Kabwe Warriors
Garuda Lions Prediction: Red Arrows
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
Red Arrows vs Kabwe Warriors overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Red Arrows vs Kabwe Warriors
| Probability | Red Arrows | Draw | Kabwe Warriors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.9% | 23.6% | 8.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 67.9% | 23.6% | 8.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Red Arrows
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.47.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Red Arrows vs Kabwe Warriors match preview
Red Arrows are set to face Kabwe Warriors in the Zambia Super League, with a kickoff scheduled for October 17, 2026. According to our model, Red Arrows hold a 68% probability of winning, while Kabwe Warriors have an 8% chance. The expected goals for Red Arrows stand at 1.76, compared to just 0.47 for Kabwe Warriors. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with an 18% probability.
In terms of recent form, Red Arrows have shown strong performance with four wins and two draws in their last six matches, while Kabwe Warriors have struggled, managing only one win and five draws in the same period. Historically, Red Arrows have dominated their recent encounters, winning both of the last two matches against Kabwe Warriors.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Red Arrows and Kabwe Warriors expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.22
Red Arrows and Kabwe Warriors attack and defence ratings
Red Arrows
Kabwe Warriors
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Green Eagles v Roan United — match page
- Man Utd Zambia Academy vs Makeni All Stars — team news & stats
- Zanaco vs NAPSA Stars
- Kansanshi Dynamos v Konkola Blades — match page
- Nkana vs Nchanga Rangers
- ZESCO United vs Mufulira Wanderers — team news & stats
- Green Buffaloes vs Nkwazi — team news & stats
- Power Dynamos vs Trident
Before and after this match
Red Arrows vs Kabwe Warriors markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Red Arrows | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.5% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Red Arrows win | 40.8% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Red Arrows | 67.9% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| Kabwe Warriors | 8.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31.9% |
| No | 68.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Red Arrows win | 40.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.1% | |
| Loss | 32.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 18.1% |
| 2-0 | 16.6% | |
| 0-0 | 11.8% |
Red Arrows vs Kabwe Warriors stats
Red Arrows and Kabwe Warriors recent form
| Red Arrows |
DWWWWD |
| Kabwe Warriors |
WDLDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Red Arrows vs Kabwe Warriors head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Red Arrows | Kabwe Warriors | Zambia Super League | 3-1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Kabwe Warriors | Red Arrows | Zambia Super League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.