Temperley
vs
Nueva Chicago
Garuda Lions Prediction: Temperley
1 – 0 Predicted score · 21% model probability
Temperley vs Nueva Chicago overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Temperley vs Nueva Chicago
| Probability | Temperley | Draw | Nueva Chicago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.6% | 25.1% | 7.4% |
| Market | 52.2% | 29.7% | 18.1% |
| Final | 56.1% | 28.6% | 15.4% |
| Edge | +15.4% | -4.7% | -10.7% |
Why Temperley
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.37.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Temperley below the model: +15.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Temperley vs Nueva Chicago match preview
Temperley is set to face Nueva Chicago in the Primera Nacional on October 11, 2026. The model indicates a strong probability of a Temperley victory at 66%, with a draw at 26% and Nueva Chicago at just 8%. The expected goals suggest a significant advantage for Temperley, with 1.55 compared to Nueva Chicago's 0.40. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 21%.
In terms of recent form, Temperley has shown consistency with three wins in their last five matches, while Nueva Chicago has struggled, recording two wins and three losses in the same period. Head-to-head results favor Temperley, who have won twice and drawn once in their last three encounters against Nueva Chicago, who have yet to secure a win in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Temperley and Nueva Chicago expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.98
Temperley and Nueva Chicago attack and defence ratings
Temperley
Nueva Chicago
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Deportivo Madryn vs Chaco For Ever — team news & stats
- Atlanta v San Martin Tucuman — match page
- Defensores De Belgrano v Acassuso — match page
- CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron
- Almirante Brown vs San Miguel
- Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes
- Gimnasia Jujuy v Gimnasia Y Tiro — match page
- Atletico Mitre vs Colon Santa Fe
Before and after this match
Temperley vs Nueva Chicago markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Temperley | 56.1% | 1.78 | +15.4% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.2% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.6% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Temperley win | 38.9% | 2.57 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Temperley | 56.1% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| Nueva Chicago | 15.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 25.8% |
| No | 74.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Temperley win | 38.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28.7% | |
| Loss | 32.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 21.3% |
| 2-0 | 17.8% | |
| 0-0 | 14.6% |
Temperley vs Nueva Chicago stats
Temperley and Nueva Chicago recent form
| Temperley |
WLWDWW |
| Nueva Chicago |
LWDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Temperley and Nueva Chicago season so far
Temperley record
- They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nueva Chicago record
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 31 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Temperley vs Nueva Chicago head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Nueva Chicago | Temperley | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Temperley | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional | 3-0 |
| 2025-06-02 | Nueva Chicago | Temperley | Primera Nacional | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Temperley vs Nueva Chicago odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.2%, draw 29.7%, away 18.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.73 | 3.04 | 5.04 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.10 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.20 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.74 | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.71 | 3.04 | 4.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.73 | 3.20 | 5.53 |
| SBO | 1.63 | 2.91 | 4.69 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.00 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .