Brazil Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 26
Ponte Preta
vs
São Bernardo
0 – 2 Full time
| 45′ | Rodrigo Ferreira | ||
| 63′ | Gustavo Felipe AlmeidaMatheus Souza Santos | ||
| 66′ | Sergio Palacios | ||
| 66′ | Jemerson | ||
| 69′ | ParáMário Sérgio Valerio | ||
| 69′ | RomissonLucas Fernandes | ||
| 76′ | Sergio Palacios | ||
| 79′ | Mário Sérgio Valerio | ||
| 80′ | David da Hora | ||
| 80′ | Felipe GarciaLéo Jabá | ||
| 80′ | Pedro Vitor Ferreira da SilvaLucas Rian Santos Oliveira | ||
| 82′ | Miguel Morais Silva SantosJoão Victor Damião Dos Santos | ||
| 82′ | Murilo Henrique CavalcanteJuan Rodrigues Leopoldino | ||
| 84′ | Eduardo·da Silva AlbuquerqueMarcão Silva | ||
| 84′ | Rodrigo Ferreira | ||
| 88′ | Danilo BarcelosNicolas Silva |
Ponte Preta
12%
Draw
21%
São Bernardo
67%
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 49 | Possession % | 51 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 4 | Saves | 1 |
| 287 | Accurate passes | 286 |
Ponte Preta vs São Bernardo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ponte Preta vs São Bernardo
| Probability | Ponte Preta | Draw | São Bernardo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.2% | 25.0% | 57.9% |
| Market | 10.0% | 19.6% | 70.5% |
| Final | 11.8% | 20.9% | 67.3% |
| Edge | +7.2% | +5.4% | -12.6% |
Why São Bernardo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
92%
2+ goals
76%
3+ goals
51%
No goals
8%
Ponte Preta and São Bernardo expected goals
Ponte Preta
0.89
São Bernardo
1.81
Total expected goals: 2.70
Ponte Preta and São Bernardo attack and defence ratings
Ponte Preta
Attack
0.55 -45%
Defence
1.77 +77%
São Bernardo
Attack
1.06 +6%
Defence
1.26 +26%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ponte Preta vs São Bernardo: result vs prediction
Ponte Preta 0 – 2 São Bernardo
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ponte Preta vs São Bernardo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | São Bernardo | 67.3% | 1.49 | -12.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 88.2% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.1% | 2.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ponte Preta | 11.8% |
| Draw | 20.9% | |
| São Bernardo | 67.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.4% |
| No | 49.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 32.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 88.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | São Bernardo win | 34.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 42.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 0-1 | 11.1% | |
| 0-2 | 11.0% |
Ponte Preta vs São Bernardo stats
Ponte Preta and São Bernardo recent form
| Ponte Preta |
LLLDLD |
| São Bernardo |
LDDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ponte Preta and São Bernardo going into this match
Ponte Preta record
- They have won 2 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
São Bernardo record
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Ponte Preta vs São Bernardo head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
0Ponte Preta wins
1Draws
4São Bernardo wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | São Bernardo | Ponte Preta | Brazil Serie B | 3-0 |
| 2026-01-22 | Ponte Preta | São Bernardo | Paulista - A1 | 0-1 |
| 2025-07-12 | São Bernardo | Ponte Preta | Serie C | 2-0 |
| 2024-02-04 | Ponte Preta | São Bernardo | Paulista - A1 | 3-3 |
| 2022-02-05 | São Bernardo | Ponte Preta | Paulista - A1 | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ponte Preta vs São Bernardo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 10.3%, draw 19.8%, away 69.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 14.50 | 6.00 | 1.19 |
| 1xBet | 9.40 | 4.60 | 1.29 |
| Bet365 | 10.00 | 4.75 | 1.33 |
| BetVictor | 8.50 | 4.60 | 1.29 |
| Betano | 8.00 | 4.55 | 1.40 |
| Betfair | 7.00 | 4.60 | 1.40 |
| Dafabet | 7.80 | 4.50 | 1.43 |
| Marathonbet | 9.40 | 4.90 | 1.30 |
| Pinnacle | 8.65 | 4.94 | 1.30 |
| Superbet | 7.30 | 4.30 | 1.39 |
| Unibet | 12.00 | 6.25 | 1.21 |
| William Hill | 9.00 | 4.60 | 1.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
9.20 ▲ +1.60
X
4.67 ▲ +0.33
2
1.30 ▼ -0.11
13 snapshots recorded, from .