Panthers
vs
USM Alger
Garuda Lions Prediction: Panthers
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Panthers vs USM Alger overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Panthers vs USM Alger
| Probability | Panthers | Draw | USM Alger |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.5% | 24.9% | 26.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 48.5% | 24.9% | 26.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Panthers
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.32.
Panthers vs USM Alger match preview
In the upcoming CAF Confederation Cup match, Panthers are projected to have a 48% chance of winning against USM Alger, who have a 27% likelihood of securing a victory. The most likely scoreline is forecasted to be 2-1 in favor of Panthers, with a 9% probability. The model suggests a strong potential for goals, with a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% probability that both teams will score.
Analyzing the expected goals, Panthers are estimated to score 1.83, while USM Alger is predicted to net 1.32. Recent form shows Panthers with a win followed by a loss, while USM Alger has recorded a mix of results, including two wins and three draws in their last six matches. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Panthers and USM Alger expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.15
Panthers and USM Alger attack and defence ratings
Panthers
USM Alger
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures
Before and after this match
Panthers vs USM Alger markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Panthers | 48.5% | 2.06 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Panthers | 48.5% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| USM Alger | 26.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% |
| No | 37.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Panthers win | 27.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 51.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.2% |