Jaguares
vs
Llaneros
Garuda Lions Prediction: Jaguares
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.29.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Jaguares vs Llaneros overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Jaguares vs Llaneros
| Probability | Jaguares | Draw | Llaneros |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.4% | 25.9% | 27.7% |
| Market | 35.6% | 28.6% | 35.8% |
| Final | 38.3% | 27.9% | 33.8% |
| Edge | +2.7% | -0.7% | -2.0% |
Why Jaguares
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.29.
- The market prices Jaguares below our published probability: +2.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.69, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.0% per unit staked (our 38.3% × 2.69 − 1).
Jaguares vs Llaneros match preview
In the upcoming match between Jaguares and Llaneros, the model gives Jaguares a 42% chance of winning, while Llaneros has a 32% probability. A draw is estimated at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Jaguares, with a 9% likelihood. The model also indicates a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are expected to score with a 61% probability.
Recent form shows Jaguares struggling with one win in their last six matches, while Llaneros has also had a mixed performance with two wins in their last six. The expected goals for Jaguares stand at 1.61, while Llaneros is at 1.39, suggesting a closely contested match. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Jaguares and Llaneros expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.00
Jaguares and Llaneros attack and defence ratings
Jaguares
Llaneros
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Chico v Bucaramanga — match page
- Junior vs Águilas Doradas
- America de Cali vs Cucuta
- Once Caldas v Deportivo Pereira — match page
- Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali — team news & stats
- Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota — team news & stats
- Atletico Nacional v Independiente Medellin — match page
- Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Jaguares vs Llaneros markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jaguares | 38.3% | 2.61 | +2.7% | 2.69 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jaguares | 38.3% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Llaneros | 33.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.5% |
| No | 39.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Jaguares win | 25.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 53.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-0 | 7.4% |
Jaguares vs Llaneros stats
Jaguares and Llaneros recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Jaguares and Llaneros season so far
Jaguares record
- They have won 7 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Llaneros record
- They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jaguares vs Llaneros head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | Llaneros | Jaguares | Primera A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Jaguares vs Llaneros odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.6%, draw 28.6%, away 35.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.55 | 3.24 | 2.59 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.25 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.65 | 3.25 | 2.60 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.30 | 2.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.55 | 3.24 | 2.59 |
| Pinnacle | 2.69 | 3.28 | 2.59 |
| SBO | 2.40 | 2.91 | 2.43 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .