Stockport County
vs
Barnsley
Garuda Lions Prediction: Stockport County
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Stockport County vs Barnsley overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stockport County vs Barnsley
| Probability | Stockport County | Draw | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.8% | 18.3% | 14.0% |
| Market | 65.5% | 19.2% | 15.3% |
| Final | 66.1% | 19.0% | 15.0% |
| Edge | +2.2% | -0.9% | -1.3% |
Why Stockport County
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.58 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Stockport County below the model: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Stockport County vs Barnsley match preview
In the upcoming League One match, Stockport County hosts Barnsley on October 10, 2026. Stockport County holds a strong probability of winning at 67%, while Barnsley's chances stand at 14%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Stockport County, with a 9% likelihood. The match is expected to see over 2.5 goals at 72%, and both teams are projected to score with a probability of 63%.
Recent form shows Stockport County with a record of W-D-L-W-L-W, while Barnsley has recorded D-D-L-L-W-W. In their last two encounters, Stockport County has secured 1 win and 1 draw against Barnsley, who has not won in their last two meetings. Stockport County's expected goals are 2.58, compared to Barnsley's 1.13, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stockport County and Barnsley expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.71
Stockport County and Barnsley attack and defence ratings
Stockport County
Barnsley
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Stockport County vs Barnsley markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stockport County | 66.1% | 1.51 | +2.2% | 1.44 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.0% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Stockport County win | 47.2% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stockport County | 66.1% |
| Draw | 19.0% | |
| Barnsley | 15.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% |
| No | 36.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stockport County win | 47.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 32.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.2% |
| 2-0 | 8.1% | |
| 3-1 | 7.9% |
Stockport County vs Barnsley stats
Stockport County and Barnsley recent form
| Stockport County |
WDLWLW |
| Barnsley |
DDLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stockport County and Barnsley season so far
Stockport County record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Barnsley record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 61% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stockport County vs Barnsley head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Barnsley | Stockport County | League One | 1-3 |
| 2025-11-29 | Stockport County | Barnsley | League One | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-08 | Stockport County | Barnsley | League One | 2-1 |
| 2024-09-28 | Barnsley | Stockport County | League One | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Stockport County vs Barnsley odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.5%, draw 19.2%, away 15.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.43 | 4.85 | 6.06 |
| Bet365 | 1.42 | 4.50 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.44 | 4.80 | 6.10 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.43 | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.42 | 4.85 | 6.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.43 | 5.21 | 5.78 |
| SBO | 1.34 | 4.25 | 5.32 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.80 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .