Rayo Vallecano
vs
Athletic Club
Garuda Lions Prediction: Athletic Club
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club
| Probability | Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.4% | 29.5% | 34.1% |
| Market | 35.0% | 28.1% | 36.9% |
| Final | 35.4% | 28.4% | 36.2% |
| Edge | +1.4% | +1.4% | -2.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club match preview
Rayo Vallecano will face Athletic Club in this La Liga matchup, with model probabilities indicating a close contest. Rayo Vallecano has a 35% chance of winning, while Athletic Club is slightly favored at 37%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability. The expectation for over 2.5 goals stands at 55%, and both teams are anticipated to score in 61% of the scenarios.
Recent form shows Rayo Vallecano with a mixed record of D-W-L-W-L-D, while Athletic Club has had two draws followed by two wins and two losses. In their last six encounters, Rayo Vallecano has not secured a win, recording 0 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses against Athletic Club. The expected goals for this match are closely matched, with Rayo Vallecano at 1.40 and Athletic Club at 1.42.
Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Club team news
Rayo Vallecano news
- A. Batalla — broken calfbone
- I. Balliu — ankle injury
- Luiz Felipe — hamstring injury
Athletic Club news
- A. Djalo — injury
- N. Williams — thigh injury
- O. Sancet — muscle injury
- U. Egiluz — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Club expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.81
Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Club attack and defence ratings
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Club
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Club | 36.2% | 2.76 | -2.8% | 2.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.9% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rayo Vallecano | 35.4% |
| Draw | 28.4% | |
| Athletic Club | 36.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.6% |
| No | 39.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Athletic Club win | 16.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.2% | |
| Loss | 65.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 1-2 | 8.2% |
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club stats
Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Club recent form
| Rayo Vallecano |
DWLWLD |
| Athletic Club |
DDWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Club season so far
Rayo Vallecano record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Athletic Club record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Rayo Vallecano | Athletic Club | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-25 | Athletic Club | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-13 | Athletic Club | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 3-1 |
| 2024-12-01 | Rayo Vallecano | Athletic Club | La Liga | 1-2 |
| 2024-05-25 | Rayo Vallecano | Athletic Club | La Liga | 0-1 |
| 2023-12-02 | Athletic Club | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 4-0 |
| 2023-03-05 | Rayo Vallecano | Athletic Club | La Liga | 0-0 |
| 2022-09-17 | Athletic Club | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 3-2 |
| 2022-01-23 | Rayo Vallecano | Athletic Club | La Liga | 0-1 |
| 2021-09-21 | Athletic Club | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.0%, draw 28.1%, away 36.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.88 | 3.48 | 2.63 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.75 | 3.35 | 2.57 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.45 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.80 | 3.38 | 2.56 |
| Pinnacle | 2.77 | 3.40 | 2.65 |
| SBO | 2.52 | 3.08 | 2.44 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
44 snapshots recorded, from .