Polonia Warszawa
vs
Polonia Bytom
2 – 2 Full time
| 23′ | M. Marcjanik | ||
| 48′ | K. Andrzejczak | ||
| 66′ | K. Andrzejczak | ||
| 68′ | S. SkrabbO. Wojciechowski | ||
| 68′ | K. OrlikB. Mioc | ||
| 68′ | P. StefanskiK. Michalski | ||
| 75′ | K. Andrzejczak | ||
| 76′ | S. KowalczykD. Vega | ||
| 76′ | I. DurmusR. Dadok | ||
| 79′ | S. KadziolkaA. Malachowski | ||
| 82′ | M. Marcjanik | ||
| 85′ | P. OlszewskiE. Terpilowski | ||
| 85′ | J. PaszkowskiA. Kapusta | ||
| 88′ | L. ZielinskiM. Wolski | ||
| 89′ | D. Gnaase | ||
| 90′ | M. Labojko |
Polonia Warszawa vs Polonia Bytom overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Polonia Warszawa vs Polonia Bytom
| Probability | Polonia Warszawa | Draw | Polonia Bytom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.5% | 22.8% | 25.7% |
| Market | 47.7% | 26.1% | 26.2% |
| Final | 48.7% | 25.2% | 26.1% |
| Edge | +3.7% | -3.2% | -0.5% |
Why Polonia Warszawa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.45.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Polonia Warszawa below the model: +3.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Polonia Warszawa and Polonia Bytom expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.55
Polonia Warszawa and Polonia Bytom attack and defence ratings
Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Bytom
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Polonia Warszawa vs Polonia Bytom: result vs prediction
Polonia Warszawa 2 – 2 Polonia Bytom
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Puszcza Niepołomice vs ŁKS Łódź — team news & stats
- Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Siedlce
- Warta Poznań v Arka Gdynia — match page
- Ruch Chorzów vs Podbeskidzie — team news & stats
- Unia Skierniewice vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- Lechia Gdansk v Miedz Legnica — match page
- Odra Opole vs Stal Rzeszów — team news & stats
- Stal Mielec vs Nieciecza
Before and after this match
Polonia Warszawa vs Polonia Bytom markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Polonia Warszawa | 48.7% | 2.05 | +3.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.5% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Polonia Warszawa | 48.7% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Polonia Bytom | 26.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.0% |
| No | 32.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Polonia Warszawa win | 31.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 48.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 2-2 | 6.7% |
Polonia Warszawa vs Polonia Bytom stats
Polonia Warszawa and Polonia Bytom recent form
| Polonia Warszawa |
LWLWLD |
| Polonia Bytom |
DDDLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Polonia Warszawa and Polonia Bytom going into this match
Polonia Warszawa record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
Polonia Bytom record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
Polonia Warszawa vs Polonia Bytom head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | Polonia Bytom | Polonia Warszawa | I Liga | 3-2 |
| 2025-10-25 | Polonia Warszawa | Polonia Bytom | I Liga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Polonia Warszawa vs Polonia Bytom odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.1%, draw 25.5%, away 25.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.88 | 3.50 | 3.54 |
| 888Sport | 1.75 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.89 | 3.65 | 3.75 |
| Marathonbet | 1.86 | 3.50 | 3.48 |
| Pinnacle | 1.95 | 3.81 | 3.59 |
| SBO | 1.82 | 3.26 | 3.19 |
| Superbet | 1.88 | 3.60 | 3.65 |
| Unibet | 1.77 | 3.55 | 3.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .