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I Liga · Full time ·Matchday 8

Stal Mielec vs Nieciecza

1 – 2 Full time

16′W. Jakubik
34′S. MusiolikK. Odolak
45′F. Gerbowski
45′M. Kozik
51′K. Cybulski
54′D. BiniekK. Zapolnik
62′M. CebulaM. Domanski
62′K. CybulskiS. Oure
62′I. PuertoH. Matynia
64′H. Matynia
66′K. Zapolnik
73′A. Putivtsev
76′M. KozikM. Synos
76′W. JakubikI. Durdov
78′K. Getinger
80′K. Zapolnik
86′F. GerbowskiT. Gmur
89′K. Zapolnik
90′R. BobocA. Zarowny

Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu, MielecReferee: P. Idzik

Stal Mielec 38%
Draw 25%
Nieciecza 37%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Stal Mielec vs Nieciecza overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Stal Mielec vs Nieciecza

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityStal MielecDrawNieciecza
Model39.7%21.3%39.0%
Market37.9%26.1%36.0%
Final38.3%24.9%36.8%
Edge+1.8%-4.8%+3.0%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Stal Mielec ↓ / Nieciecza → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 7% 5% 4% 2 7% 7% 5% 4% 3 5% 5% 4% 4+ 4% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 93%
3+ goals 80%
No goals 2%

Stal Mielec and Nieciecza expected goals

Stal Mielec 2.14
Nieciecza 2.12

Total expected goals: 4.25

Stal Mielec and Nieciecza attack and defence ratings

Stal Mielec

Attack 1.21 +21%
Defence 1.24 +24%

Nieciecza

Attack 1.26 +26%
Defence 1.12 +12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Stal Mielec vs Nieciecza: result vs prediction

Stal Mielec 1 – 2 Nieciecza

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

I Liga

Before and after this match

Stal Mielec vs Nieciecza markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Stal Mielec 38.3% 2.61 +1.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 79.7% 1.26 — —
Both teams to score Yes 78.2% 1.28 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.1% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 60.3% 1.66 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Stal Mielec38.3%
Draw24.9%
Nieciecza36.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.579.7%
Under 2.520.3%
Both teams to scoreYes78.2%
No21.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)63.2%
12 (either side)75.1%
X2 (draw or away)61.7%
Handicap -1Stal Mielec win22.8%
Push (exactly one goal)16.9%
Loss60.3%
Correct score (top 3)2-27.3%
1-17.1%
2-16.9%

Stal Mielec vs Nieciecza stats

Stal Mielec and Nieciecza recent form

newest first
Stal Mielec DDLLWD
Nieciecza WWDLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Stal Mielec and Nieciecza going into this match

league record before kick-off

Stal Mielec record

  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Nieciecza record

  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Stal Mielec vs Nieciecza head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

5Stal Mielec wins 1Draws 3Nieciecza wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-23NiecieczaStal MielecFriendlies Clubs4-0
2022-03-25NiecieczaStal MielecFriendlies Clubs4-1
2021-12-10Stal MielecNiecieczaEkstraklasa1-0
2021-09-03Stal MielecNiecieczaFriendlies Clubs1-0
2021-07-23NiecieczaStal MielecEkstraklasa1-1
2020-03-08Stal MielecNiecieczaI Liga0-3
2019-08-21NiecieczaStal MielecI Liga1-2
2019-05-11Stal MielecNiecieczaI Liga5-4
2018-10-28NiecieczaStal MielecI Liga1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Stal Mielec vs Nieciecza odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.1%, draw 26.1%, away 35.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.38 3.45 2.50
888Sport 2.30 3.50 2.50
Bet365 2.45 3.40 2.55
BetVictor 2.40 3.50 2.55
Betano 2.42 3.55 2.60
Betfair 2.38 3.60 2.50
Dafabet 2.37 3.60 2.65
Marathonbet 2.38 3.45 2.50
Pinnacle 2.45 3.74 2.67
SBO 2.23 3.18 2.46
Unibet 2.07 3.40 2.90
William Hill 2.30 3.40 2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.38 ▲ +0.08
X 3.45 ▼ -0.14
2 2.50 ▼ -0.05

14 snapshots recorded, from .