Angola
vs
South Sudan
Garuda Lions Prediction: Angola
1 – 0 Predicted score · 17% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.53.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Angola is the favourite, not a value bet.
Angola vs South Sudan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Angola vs South Sudan
| Probability | Angola | Draw | South Sudan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.8% | 24.9% | 10.3% |
| Market | 73.8% | 19.3% | 6.9% |
| Final | 71.6% | 20.7% | 7.7% |
| Edge | -2.2% | +1.4% | +0.8% |
Why Angola
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.53.
Best available price on the pick: 1.22, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.7% per unit staked (our 71.6% × 1.22 − 1).
Angola vs South Sudan match preview
Angola faces South Sudan in the Africa Cup of Nations qualification match on November 11, 2026. According to our model, Angola has a strong probability of winning at 72%, while South Sudan stands at 8%. The expected goals for Angola are 1.69, compared to just 0.53 for South Sudan, indicating a significant disparity in offensive output. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 17% chance of occurring.
In terms of recent form, Angola has recorded a sequence of results with one win, three draws, and one loss, while South Sudan has struggled with three losses, one win, and one draw in their last five matches. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 38%, and both teams scoring is projected at 35%. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Angola and South Sudan expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.23
Angola and South Sudan attack and defence ratings
Angola
South Sudan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Angola vs South Sudan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Angola | 71.6% | 1.40 | -2.2% | 1.22 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 65.3% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.3% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Angola win | 37.9% | 2.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Angola | 71.6% |
| Draw | 20.7% | |
| South Sudan | 7.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34.7% |
| No | 65.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 28.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Angola win | 37.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.9% | |
| Loss | 35.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 17.3% |
| 2-0 | 15.5% | |
| 0-0 | 11.8% |
Angola vs South Sudan stats
Angola and South Sudan recent form
| Angola |
WDDDLD |
| South Sudan |
LLLWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Angola vs South Sudan head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Angola vs South Sudan odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 73.8%, draw 19.3%, away 6.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.22 | 4.66 | 13.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
49 snapshots recorded, from .