Angola
vs
Malawi
3 – 1 Full time
| 2′ | Milson | ||
| 6′ | M. Lameck | ||
| 38′ | Mabululu | ||
| 45′ | Kialonda Gaspar | ||
| 45′ | B. SinginiYankho Singo | ||
| 45′ | M. LameckMayele Malango | ||
| 68′ | Zito LuvumboAmbrósini António Cabaça Salvador | ||
| 68′ | MabululuValdemiro Pinto Domingos | ||
| 70′ | Valdemiro Pinto Domingos | ||
| 76′ | ShowMario Balburdia | ||
| 78′ | Gaddie ChirwaFrancisco Madinga | ||
| 78′ | Patrick MwaunguluRichard Mbulu | ||
| 84′ | Pedro Bondo FranciscoFernando Inácio da Costa | ||
| 84′ | MilsonDeivi Miguel Vieira |
Match stats
| 21 | Shots | 6 |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 72 | Possession % | 28 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 2 | Saves | 5 |
| 688 | Accurate passes | 214 |
Angola vs Malawi overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Angola vs Malawi
| Probability | Angola | Draw | Malawi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.2% | 36.4% | 23.4% |
| Market | 67.1% | 23.1% | 9.9% |
| Final | 60.3% | 26.4% | 13.2% |
| Edge | -26.9% | +13.3% | +13.6% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Angola and Malawi expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.67
Angola and Malawi attack and defence ratings
Angola
Malawi
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Angola vs Malawi: result vs prediction
Angola 3 – 1 Malawi
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Group Stage - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Angola vs Malawi markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Angola | 60.3% | 1.66 | -26.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 76.6% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 67.8% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.8% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Angola | 60.3% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Malawi | 13.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 76.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32.2% |
| No | 67.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Angola win | 15.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 59.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 20.2% |
| 1-0 | 17.3% | |
| 1-1 | 14.0% |
Angola vs Malawi stats
Angola vs Malawi head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-10 | Malawi | Angola | COSAFA Cup | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Angola vs Malawi odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 67.1%, draw 23.1%, away 9.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.38 | 4.10 | 9.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 4.00 | 8.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 3.90 | 9.50 |
| Betano | 1.39 | 3.95 | 9.25 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 4.00 | 9.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.37 | 4.10 | 8.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.39 | 3.91 | 9.90 |
| SBO | 1.36 | 3.65 | 7.43 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 3.80 | 9.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .