Egypt
vs
Malawi
Garuda Lions Prediction: Egypt
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 0.71.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Egypt is the favourite, not a value bet.
Egypt vs Malawi overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Egypt vs Malawi
| Probability | Egypt | Draw | Malawi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.4% | 21.6% | 11.0% |
| Market | 80.9% | 13.9% | 5.2% |
| Final | 77.5% | 15.8% | 6.6% |
| Edge | -3.4% | +1.9% | +1.5% |
Why Egypt
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 0.71.
Best available price on the pick: 1.09, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.5% per unit staked (our 77.5% × 1.09 − 1).
Egypt vs Malawi match preview
Egypt enters the match against Malawi with a strong probability of winning at 78%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring with a 13% likelihood. Egypt's expected goals stand at 2.03, while Malawi's are significantly lower at 0.71. The recent form for Egypt shows a mixed bag with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches, while Malawi has struggled, recording only one win in their last six outings.
Malawi's chances of securing a positive result are slim, reflected in their 7% probability of winning. The model also indicates a 52% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance for both teams to score. With Egypt's overall superior form and scoring potential, they are favored to dominate the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Egypt and Malawi expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.74
Egypt and Malawi attack and defence ratings
Egypt
Malawi
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Egypt vs Malawi markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Egypt | 77.5% | 1.29 | -3.4% | 1.09 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.4% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Egypt win | 43.2% | 2.31 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Egypt | 77.5% |
| Draw | 15.8% | |
| Malawi | 6.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.0% |
| No | 55.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 22.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Egypt win | 43.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.2% | |
| Loss | 32.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 12.2% | |
| 1-1 | 10.2% |
Egypt vs Malawi stats
Egypt vs Malawi head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Egypt vs Malawi odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 80.9%, draw 13.9%, away 5.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.09 | 6.32 | 17.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
48 snapshots recorded, from .