Burkina Faso
vs
Mauritania
Garuda Lions Prediction: Burkina Faso
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.63.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Burkina Faso is the favourite, not a value bet.
Burkina Faso vs Mauritania overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Burkina Faso vs Mauritania
| Probability | Burkina Faso | Draw | Mauritania |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.6% | 24.6% | 11.8% |
| Market | 63.8% | 24.0% | 12.2% |
| Final | 63.8% | 24.2% | 12.1% |
| Edge | -0.1% | +0.2% | -0.1% |
Why Burkina Faso
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.63.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.41, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.1% per unit staked (our 63.8% × 1.41 − 1).
Burkina Faso vs Mauritania match preview
Burkina Faso faces Mauritania in the Africa Cup of Nations qualification match on November 11, 2026. According to our model, Burkina Faso has a 64% chance of winning, while Mauritania's chances stand at 12%. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 1-0 in favor of Burkina Faso, with an expected goals tally of 1.75 for Burkina Faso and 0.63 for Mauritania.
In terms of recent form, Burkina Faso has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last six matches. In contrast, Mauritania has shown some resilience, securing two wins, two draws, and one loss in their recent outings. The probability of over 2.5 goals is at 42%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 39%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Burkina Faso and Mauritania expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.38
Burkina Faso and Mauritania attack and defence ratings
Burkina Faso
Mauritania
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Burkina Faso vs Mauritania markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burkina Faso | 63.8% | 1.57 | -0.1% | 1.41 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.9% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Burkina Faso win | 37.7% | 2.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burkina Faso | 63.8% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| Mauritania | 12.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.5% |
| No | 60.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Burkina Faso win | 37.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.9% | |
| Loss | 36.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.2% |
| 2-0 | 14.2% | |
| 1-1 | 11.2% |
Burkina Faso vs Mauritania stats
Burkina Faso and Mauritania recent form
| Burkina Faso |
WDLWLW |
| Mauritania |
LWLDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Burkina Faso vs Mauritania head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Burkina Faso vs Mauritania odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 63.8%, draw 24.0%, away 12.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.41 | 3.75 | 7.37 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
48 snapshots recorded, from .