Comoros
vs
Congo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Comoros
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.73.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Comoros vs Congo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Comoros vs Congo
| Probability | Comoros | Draw | Congo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.9% | 30.9% | 19.2% |
| Market | 40.6% | 29.1% | 30.3% |
| Final | 42.9% | 29.6% | 27.5% |
| Edge | +2.3% | +0.4% | -2.8% |
Why Comoros
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Comoros below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.8% per unit staked (our 42.9% × 2.22 − 1).
Comoros vs Congo match preview
In the upcoming Africa Cup of Nations qualification match, Comoros faces Congo with a probability of 43% for a Comoros victory, while a draw is estimated at 30% and a Congo win at 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Comoros, with an expected goals tally of 1.33 for Comoros compared to 0.73 for Congo.
Recent form shows Comoros with a record of W-L-D-D-L-L, while Congo has struggled with D-L-L-L-D-L. The model indicates a 34% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 39% probability for both teams to score. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Comoros and Congo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.06
Comoros and Congo attack and defence ratings
Comoros
Congo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Comoros vs Congo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Comoros | 42.9% | 2.33 | +2.3% | 2.22 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.0% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Comoros | 42.9% |
| Draw | 29.6% | |
| Congo | 27.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.3% |
| No | 60.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Comoros win | 24.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.4% | |
| Loss | 50.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.7% |
| 0-0 | 14.0% | |
| 1-1 | 13.6% |
Comoros vs Congo stats
Comoros vs Congo head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Comoros vs Congo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.6%, draw 29.1%, away 30.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.22 | 3.09 | 2.97 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
48 snapshots recorded, from .