Gabon
vs
Lesotho
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gabon
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.89.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Gabon is the favourite, not a value bet.
Gabon vs Lesotho overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gabon vs Lesotho
| Probability | Gabon | Draw | Lesotho |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.9% | 25.5% | 17.6% |
| Market | 78.0% | 16.0% | 6.0% |
| Final | 72.7% | 18.4% | 8.9% |
| Edge | -5.3% | +2.4% | +2.9% |
Why Gabon
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.89.
Best available price on the pick: 1.14, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -17.1% per unit staked (our 72.7% × 1.14 − 1).
Gabon vs Lesotho match preview
Gabon enters the match against Lesotho with a strong probability of winning at 73%, while the chances of a draw stand at 18% and Lesotho at 9%. The expected goals for Gabon are 1.76, compared to Lesotho's 0.89, indicating a clear offensive advantage for the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0, occurring at an 11% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, Gabon has struggled with six consecutive matches, recording one win and five losses. Conversely, Lesotho has shown some resilience, with two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six games. The model suggests a 49% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance for both teams to score, reflecting uncertainty about Lesotho's ability to find the net against Gabon's defense.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gabon and Lesotho expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.65
Gabon and Lesotho attack and defence ratings
Gabon
Lesotho
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gabon vs Lesotho markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gabon | 72.7% | 1.38 | -5.3% | 1.14 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.1% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.1% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gabon | 72.7% |
| Draw | 18.4% | |
| Lesotho | 8.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.9% |
| No | 50.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 27.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gabon win | 32.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 43.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | |
| 2-0 | 10.9% |
Gabon vs Lesotho stats
Gabon vs Lesotho head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Gabon vs Lesotho odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 78.0%, draw 16.0%, away 6.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.14 | 5.54 | 14.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
49 snapshots recorded, from .