Morocco
vs
Niger
Garuda Lions Prediction: Morocco
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 0.72.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Morocco is the favourite, not a value bet.
Morocco vs Niger overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Morocco vs Niger
| Probability | Morocco | Draw | Niger |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68.9% | 20.6% | 10.5% |
| Market | 86.0% | 8.9% | 5.1% |
| Final | 81.7% | 11.8% | 6.5% |
| Edge | -4.3% | +2.9% | +1.4% |
Why Morocco
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 0.72.
Best available price on the pick: 1.01, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -17.5% per unit staked (our 81.7% × 1.01 − 1).
Morocco vs Niger match preview
Morocco enters the match against Niger with a strong probability of winning at 82%, reflecting their recent form of three wins and a draw in their last six matches. The expected goals for Morocco stand at 2.12, suggesting a solid attacking performance, while Niger's expected goals are significantly lower at 0.72. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring with a 13% probability.
Niger has shown resilience, winning four of their last six matches, but they face a challenging opponent in Morocco, who has dominated their recent head-to-head encounters with two victories. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is 54%, indicating a potential for a high-scoring game, while both teams to score has a probability of 46%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Morocco and Niger expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.84
Morocco and Niger attack and defence ratings
Morocco
Niger
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Morocco vs Niger markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Morocco | 81.7% | 1.22 | -4.3% | 1.01 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.5% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Morocco win | 45.2% | 2.21 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Morocco | 81.7% |
| Draw | 11.8% | |
| Niger | 6.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.0% |
| No | 54.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 88.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 18.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Morocco win | 45.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 31.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | |
| 1-1 | 9.8% |
Morocco vs Niger stats
Morocco vs Niger head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-05 | Morocco | Niger | World Cup - Qualification Africa | 5-0 |
| 2025-03-21 | Niger | Morocco | World Cup - Qualification Africa | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Morocco vs Niger odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 86.0%, draw 8.9%, away 5.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.01 | 9.75 | 17.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
48 snapshots recorded, from .