Tunisia
vs
Libya
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tunisia
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Tunisia vs Libya overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tunisia vs Libya
| Probability | Tunisia | Draw | Libya |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.0% | 26.6% | 32.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 41.0% | 26.6% | 32.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Tunisia vs Libya match preview
Tunisia and Libya are set to clash in the Africa Cup of Nations qualification match on November 11, 2026. According to our model, Tunisia holds a 41% probability of winning, while Libya stands at 32%, with a 27% chance of a draw. The expected goals for Tunisia is 1.58, slightly higher than Libya's 1.39, indicating a competitive matchup. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Tunisia, occurring at a 9% probability.
In terms of recent form, Tunisia has struggled with a record of D-D-L-L-L-D, while Libya has shown some resilience with L-D-D-D-W-W. Our model suggests a 57% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance that both teams will score, highlighting the potential for an engaging encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tunisia and Libya expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.97
Tunisia and Libya attack and defence ratings
Tunisia
Libya
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tunisia vs Libya markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tunisia | 41.0% | 2.44 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tunisia | 41.0% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Libya | 32.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.7% |
| No | 39.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tunisia win | 21.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 59.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.8% |