Uganda
vs
Botswana
Garuda Lions Prediction: Uganda
2 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 0.95.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Uganda vs Botswana overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Uganda vs Botswana
| Probability | Uganda | Draw | Botswana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.3% | 24.7% | 18.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 57.3% | 24.7% | 18.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Uganda
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Uganda vs Botswana match preview
Uganda is set to face Botswana in the Africa Cup of Nations qualification match on November 11, 2026. According to our model, Uganda has a 57% probability of winning, while Botswana has an 18% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 in favor of Uganda, with expected goals of 1.84 for Uganda and 0.95 for Botswana. Both teams have a 53% probability of scoring, and there is also a 53% chance that the match will see over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Uganda has recorded one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches. Botswana's recent performance shows two draws and four losses in their last six games. Historically, Uganda has won both of their last two encounters against Botswana, with no draws or wins for Botswana. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Uganda and Botswana expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.79
Uganda and Botswana attack and defence ratings
Uganda
Botswana
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Uganda vs Botswana markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Uganda | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.0% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.7% | 2.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Uganda | 57.3% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Botswana | 18.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% |
| No | 47.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Uganda win | 33.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 42.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 2-0 | 10.4% | |
| 1-0 | 10.2% |
Uganda vs Botswana stats
Uganda vs Botswana head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-09 | Botswana | Uganda | World Cup - Qualification Africa | 0-1 |
| 2024-06-07 | Uganda | Botswana | World Cup - Qualification Africa | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.