Sweden
vs
Poland
3 – 1 Full time
| 8′ | Benjamin Nygren | ||
| 19′ | Daniel Svensson | ||
| 35′ | Tymoteusz Puchacz | ||
| 43′ | Sebastian Szymański | ||
| 58′ | Piotr Zieliński | ||
| 63′ | Besfort ZeneliSebastian Nanasi | ||
| 63′ | Yasin Ayari | ||
| 65′ | Tymoteusz PuchaczPrzemysław Frankowski | ||
| 72′ | Viktor Gyökeres | ||
| 76′ | Piotr ZielińskiKacper Urbanski | ||
| 76′ | Sebastian SzymańskiKarol Świderski | ||
| 76′ | Matty CashMichał Skóraś | ||
| 80′ | Benjamin NygrenHugo Larsson | ||
| 80′ | Patrick WalemarkAlexander Bernhardsson | ||
| 88′ | Przemyslaw WiśniewskiRobert Lewandowski | ||
| 89′ | Yasin AyariWilliot Swedberg | ||
| 89′ | Viktor GyökeresJesper Karlstrom | ||
| 90′ | Robert Lewandowski |
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 53 | Possession % | 47 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 6 | Saves | 3 |
| 448 | Accurate passes | 415 |
Sweden vs Poland overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sweden vs Poland
| Probability | Sweden | Draw | Poland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.1% | 20.0% | 63.0% |
| Market | 47.2% | 25.5% | 27.3% |
| Final | 39.7% | 24.1% | 36.2% |
| Edge | -30.1% | -5.6% | +35.7% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sweden and Poland expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.69
Sweden and Poland attack and defence ratings
Sweden
Poland
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sweden vs Poland: result vs prediction
Sweden 3 – 1 Poland
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League B - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sweden vs Poland markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sweden | 39.7% | 2.52 | -30.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 83.2% | 1.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sweden | 39.7% |
| Draw | 24.1% | |
| Poland | 36.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.0% |
| No | 35.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sweden win | 6.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 10.0% | |
| Loss | 83.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.4% |
| 1-1 | 8.5% | |
| 0-2 | 7.7% |
Sweden vs Poland stats
Sweden vs Poland head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | Sweden | Poland | World Cup - Qualification Europe | 3-2 |
| 2022-03-29 | Poland | Sweden | World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-0 |
| 2021-06-23 | Sweden | Poland | Euro Championship | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sweden vs Poland odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.2%, draw 25.5%, away 27.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.05 | 3.86 | 3.50 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.03 | 3.82 | 3.46 |
| Pinnacle | 2.05 | 3.76 | 3.57 |
| SBO | 2.05 | 3.42 | 3.24 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
18 snapshots recorded, from .