Deportivo Maipu
vs
San Martin S.J.
Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportivo Maipu
1 – 0 Predicted score · 17% model probability
Deportivo Maipu vs San Martin S.J. overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Deportivo Maipu vs San Martin S.J.
| Probability | Deportivo Maipu | Draw | San Martin S.J. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.2% | 29.5% | 15.3% |
| Market | 42.3% | 31.4% | 26.3% |
| Final | 45.5% | 30.9% | 23.5% |
| Edge | +12.9% | -1.9% | -11.0% |
Why Deportivo Maipu
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.63.
- The market prices Deportivo Maipu below the model: +12.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Deportivo Maipu vs San Martin S.J. match preview
Deportivo Maipu is favored in their upcoming match against San Martin S.J., with a 53% probability of winning, compared to San Martin S.J.'s 17%. The expected goals for Deportivo Maipu stand at 1.40, while San Martin S.J. is projected to score 0.69. Recent form shows Deportivo Maipu with a record of W-D-D-D-L-W, while San Martin S.J. has L-L-W-D-L-W.
The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Deportivo Maipu, with a 16% likelihood. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and both teams are given a 39% probability of scoring. In their last encounter, San Martin S.J. emerged victorious, holding a 1-0 record against Deportivo Maipu.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Deportivo Maipu and San Martin S.J. expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.05
Deportivo Maipu and San Martin S.J. attack and defence ratings
Deportivo Maipu
San Martin S.J.
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Defensores De Belgrano v Acassuso — match page
- CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron
- Almirante Brown vs San Miguel
- Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes
- Temperley v Nueva Chicago — match page
- Gimnasia Jujuy v Gimnasia Y Tiro — match page
- Atletico Mitre vs Colon Santa Fe
- Central Norte vs Ferro Carril Oeste — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Deportivo Maipu vs San Martin S.J. markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Maipu | 45.5% | 2.20 | +12.9% | 2.22 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.5% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.8% | 2.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Maipu | 45.5% |
| Draw | 30.9% | |
| San Martin S.J. | 23.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.5% |
| No | 63.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Maipu win | 28.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.6% | |
| Loss | 44.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 17.2% |
| 0-0 | 14.0% | |
| 2-0 | 13.0% |
Deportivo Maipu vs San Martin S.J. stats
Deportivo Maipu and San Martin S.J. recent form
| Deportivo Maipu |
WWDDDL |
| San Martin S.J. |
LLWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Deportivo Maipu and San Martin S.J. season so far
Deportivo Maipu record
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
San Martin S.J. record
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Deportivo Maipu vs San Martin S.J. head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | San Martin S.J. | Deportivo Maipu | Primera Nacional | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Deportivo Maipu vs San Martin S.J. odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.3%, draw 31.4%, away 26.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.12 | 2.83 | 3.56 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 2.88 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 2.95 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.19 | 2.95 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.10 | 2.83 | 3.46 |
| Pinnacle | 2.21 | 2.99 | 3.58 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 2.72 | 3.11 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 2.90 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .