Bolton
vs
Lincoln
0 – 1 Full time
Bolton vs Lincoln overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bolton vs Lincoln
| Probability | Bolton | Draw | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.9% | 26.1% | 36.0% |
| Market | 38.3% | 29.0% | 32.7% |
| Final | 38.2% | 28.3% | 33.5% |
| Edge | -0.4% | -2.9% | +3.3% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bolton and Lincoln expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.08
Bolton and Lincoln attack and defence ratings
Bolton
Lincoln
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Bolton vs Lincoln: result vs prediction
Bolton 0 – 1 Lincoln
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bolton vs Lincoln markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bolton | 38.2% | 2.62 | -0.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bolton | 38.2% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| Lincoln | 33.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.9% |
| No | 37.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bolton win | 19.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 62.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 1-2 | 8.3% |
Bolton vs Lincoln stats
Bolton and Lincoln recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bolton and Lincoln going into this match
Bolton record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Lincoln record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bolton vs Lincoln head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Lincoln | Bolton | League One | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Bolton | Lincoln | League One | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-21 | Lincoln | Bolton | League One | 4-2 |
| 2025-01-14 | Lincoln | Bolton | EFL Trophy | 0-1 |
| 2024-12-29 | Bolton | Lincoln | League One | 3-0 |
| 2023-12-26 | Lincoln | Bolton | League One | 0-1 |
| 2023-08-05 | Bolton | Lincoln | League One | 3-0 |
| 2022-12-30 | Lincoln | Bolton | League One | 1-1 |
| 2022-10-01 | Bolton | Lincoln | League One | 2-0 |
| 2022-02-22 | Bolton | Lincoln | League One | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bolton vs Lincoln odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.3%, draw 29.0%, away 32.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.42 | 3.25 | 2.85 |
| 1xBet | 2.46 | 3.18 | 2.89 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.47 | 3.30 | 2.92 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.50 | 3.35 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.44 | 3.20 | 2.86 |
| Pinnacle | 2.46 | 3.34 | 2.91 |
| SBO | 2.21 | 2.99 | 2.76 |
| Superbet | 2.47 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| Unibet | 2.48 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.88 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .