Notts County
vs
Sheffield Wednesday
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sheffield Wednesday
0 – 1 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday
| Probability | Notts County | Draw | Sheffield Wednesday |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.6% | 28.5% | 50.8% |
| Market | 35.3% | 27.3% | 37.4% |
| Final | 31.7% | 27.6% | 40.8% |
| Edge | -14.7% | +1.3% | +13.4% |
Why Sheffield Wednesday
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.87.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sheffield Wednesday below the model: +13.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday match preview
Notts County and Sheffield Wednesday face off in a League One match with kickoff scheduled for October 20, 2026. According to our model, the probabilities for the match outcome are 31% for Notts County to win, 32% for a draw, and 37% for Sheffield Wednesday to secure a victory. The expected goals are 1.02 for Notts County and 1.14 for Sheffield Wednesday, with the most likely scoreline being 0-1, which has a 12% probability.
In terms of recent form, Notts County has struggled with three consecutive losses followed by two draws and a win, while Sheffield Wednesday has shown stronger performance with three draws followed by two wins. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match stands at 37%, and the probability of both teams scoring is at 45%. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Notts County and Sheffield Wednesday expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.38
Notts County and Sheffield Wednesday attack and defence ratings
Notts County
Sheffield Wednesday
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sheffield Wednesday | 40.8% | 2.45 | +13.4% | 2.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.2% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Notts County | 31.7% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 40.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.5% |
| No | 53.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sheffield Wednesday win | 26.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 49.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 0-1 | 12.7% | |
| 0-2 | 10.5% |
Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday stats
Notts County and Sheffield Wednesday recent form
| Notts County |
LLLLDD |
| Sheffield Wednesday |
WDDDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Notts County and Sheffield Wednesday season so far
Notts County record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Sheffield Wednesday record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.3%, draw 27.3%, away 37.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .