Garuda Lions
Today
League One · Full time ·Matchday 12

Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday

2 – 0 Full time

14′Di'Shon BernardGabriel·Otegbayo
15′Callum Slattery
34′Luka Smyth
38′D. Kanu
45′Conor·Grant
45′Callum SlatteryAli Al-Hamadi
50′Jamal Lowe
56′Barry BannanBilly Mitchell
56′Reece JamesMax Lowe
63′Luka Smythlee ndlovu
63′Nicholas TsaroullaCallum Roberts
71′Conor·GrantDarius Lipsiuc
71′Scott RobertsonMax Sanders
78′Gabriel·OtegbayoKieran Morrison
80′D. KanuJack Evans
81′Darius Lipsiuc
89′Jaden Heskey

Meadow Lane, Nottingham

Notts County 27%
Draw 28%
Sheffield Wednesday 45%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

19 Shots 6
4 Shots on target 0
52 Possession % 48
4 Corners 0
21 Fouls 17
3 Offsides 1
0 Saves 2
309 Accurate passes 264

Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNotts CountyDrawSheffield Wednesday
Model20.6%28.5%50.8%
Market29.3%27.2%43.5%
Final27.1%27.5%45.4%
Edge-2.2%+0.3%+1.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Sheffield Wednesday

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.87.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Notts County ↓ / Sheffield Wedn → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 13% 10% 1 7% 13% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 70%
3+ goals 42%
No goals 10%

Notts County and Sheffield Wednesday expected goals

Notts County 0.87
Sheffield Wednesday 1.50

Total expected goals: 2.38

Notts County and Sheffield Wednesday attack and defence ratings

Notts County

Attack 0.73 -27%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Sheffield Wednesday

Attack 1.33 +33%
Defence 0.80 -20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday: result vs prediction

Notts County 2 – 0 Sheffield Wednesday

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

League One

Before and after this match

Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sheffield Wednesday 45.4% 2.20 +1.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 57.6% 1.74 — —
Both teams to score No 53.5% 1.87 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 72.9% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 49.2% 2.03 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Notts County27.1%
Draw27.5%
Sheffield Wednesday45.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542.4%
Under 2.557.6%
Both teams to scoreYes46.5%
No53.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)54.6%
12 (either side)72.5%
X2 (draw or away)72.9%
Handicap -1Sheffield Wednesday win26.7%
Push (exactly one goal)24.1%
Loss49.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.4%
0-112.7%
0-210.5%

Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday stats

Notts County and Sheffield Wednesday recent form

newest first
Notts County LLLLDD
Sheffield Wednesday WDDDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Notts County and Sheffield Wednesday going into this match

league record before kick-off

Notts County record

  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sheffield Wednesday record

  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday head-to-head

Last 3 meetings

0Notts County wins 0Draws 3Sheffield Wednesday wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2014-08-12Sheffield WednesdayNotts CountyLeague Cup3-0
2012-03-17Notts CountySheffield WednesdayLeague One1-2
2011-08-20Sheffield WednesdayNotts CountyLeague One2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 29.3%, draw 27.2%, away 43.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.14 3.44 2.17
Bet365 3.20 3.40 2.15
BetVictor 3.20 3.50 2.15
Betano 3.10 3.40 2.20
Betfair 3.20 3.50 2.15
Dafabet 3.20 3.50 2.20
Marathonbet 3.12 3.44 2.15
Pinnacle 3.27 3.63 2.18
SBO 3.02 3.13 2.08
William Hill 3.20 3.30 2.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.20 ▲ +0.50
X 3.44 ▼ -0.06
2 2.15 ▼ -0.40

10 snapshots recorded, from .