Cheltenham
vs
Salford City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Salford City
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Cheltenham vs Salford City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cheltenham vs Salford City
| Probability | Cheltenham | Draw | Salford City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.0% | 25.8% | 44.3% |
| Market | 24.6% | 24.9% | 50.6% |
| Final | 25.9% | 25.1% | 49.0% |
| Edge | +5.4% | +0.9% | -6.3% |
Why Salford City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.37.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Cheltenham vs Salford City match preview
Cheltenham faces Salford City in a League Two clash, with the model indicating a 30% chance of a Cheltenham victory, a 26% probability of a draw, and a 44% likelihood of Salford City winning. The expected goals for Cheltenham stand at 1.37, while Salford City is projected to score 1.70. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability.
In terms of recent form, Cheltenham has recorded a mixed bag of results with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. Conversely, Salford City has been in strong form, winning five of their last six games and drawing one. Additionally, there is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% probability that both teams will score in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cheltenham and Salford City expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.08
Cheltenham and Salford City attack and defence ratings
Cheltenham
Salford City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cheltenham vs Salford City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Salford City | 49.0% | 2.04 | -6.3% | 1.90 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.7% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cheltenham | 25.9% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Salford City | 49.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.1% |
| No | 37.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Salford City win | 23.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 55.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| 2-1 | 7.4% |
Cheltenham vs Salford City stats
Cheltenham and Salford City recent form
| Cheltenham |
LWDWDW |
| Salford City |
WWWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cheltenham and Salford City season so far
Cheltenham record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Salford City record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
Cheltenham vs Salford City head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Cheltenham | Salford City | League Two | 3-2 |
| 2025-08-29 | Salford City | Cheltenham | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2025-01-25 | Cheltenham | Salford City | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2024-11-30 | Salford City | Cheltenham | England FA Cup | 2-0 |
| 2024-09-14 | Salford City | Cheltenham | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2023-01-10 | Cheltenham | Salford City | EFL Trophy | 3-1 |
| 2021-03-20 | Cheltenham | Salford City | League Two | 2-0 |
| 2020-12-12 | Salford City | Cheltenham | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2019-09-14 | Salford City | Cheltenham | League Two | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cheltenham vs Salford City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.6%, draw 24.9%, away 50.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.75 | 3.75 | 1.83 |
| Bet365 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
| BetVictor | 3.90 | 3.75 | 1.85 |
| Betano | 3.90 | 3.80 | 1.82 |
| Betfair | 3.80 | 3.80 | 1.87 |
| Dafabet | 3.85 | 3.75 | 1.90 |
| Marathonbet | 3.74 | 3.75 | 1.81 |
| Pinnacle | 3.79 | 3.95 | 1.83 |
| SBO | 3.31 | 3.11 | 1.84 |
| William Hill | 3.80 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .