KCCA
vs
UPDF
Garuda Lions Prediction: KCCA
1 – 0 Predicted score · 21% model probability
KCCA vs UPDF overview
Garuda Lions analysis: KCCA vs UPDF
| Probability | KCCA | Draw | UPDF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.0% | 31.1% | 11.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 57.0% | 31.1% | 11.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why KCCA
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.46.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
KCCA vs UPDF match preview
KCCA is set to face UPDF in the Uganda Premier League, with kickoff scheduled for October 22, 2026. According to our model, KCCA holds a 52% probability of winning, while UPDF has a 15% chance, and a draw is estimated at 34%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of KCCA, with an expected goals tally of 1.16 for KCCA and 0.49 for UPDF.
In terms of recent form, KCCA has recorded three wins, one draw, and two losses in their last six matches, while UPDF has achieved two wins, two draws, and two losses. The head-to-head record shows KCCA with two wins against UPDF, who have yet to secure a victory in their last two encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
KCCA and UPDF expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.76
KCCA and UPDF attack and defence ratings
KCCA
UPDF
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
KCCA vs UPDF markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KCCA | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 72.2% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.1% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.0% | 2.33 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KCCA | 57.0% |
| Draw | 31.1% | |
| UPDF | 11.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 26.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 74.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 27.8% |
| No | 72.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | KCCA win | 28.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28.8% | |
| Loss | 43.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 21.4% |
| 0-0 | 18.2% | |
| 2-0 | 14.6% |
KCCA vs UPDF stats
KCCA and UPDF recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
KCCA and UPDF season so far
KCCA record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
UPDF record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
KCCA vs UPDF head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | UPDF | KCCA | Uganda Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2026-01-27 | KCCA | UPDF | Uganda Premier League | 4-0 |
| 2025-03-13 | UPDF | KCCA | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2024-10-19 | KCCA | UPDF | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2024-05-07 | KCCA | UPDF | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2023-12-28 | UPDF | KCCA | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2023-04-09 | KCCA | UPDF | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2022-11-09 | UPDF | KCCA | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2022-04-05 | UPDF | KCCA | Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2021-11-19 | KCCA | UPDF | Premier League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.