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UEFA Europa Conference League · Full time ·League Stage - 1

FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga

3 – 0 Full time

49′M. Elyounoussi
60′D. HuseinbasicGabriel Silva
60′J. WindP. Victor
61′V. DadasonA. Cornelius
62′M. ElyounoussiM. Nasnas
70′RobertR. Huescas
70′A. KralT. Delaney
71′Ákos Markgráf
75′Sergio BarciaV. Gomez
75′J. MoutinhoJ. Milosevic
79′A. Cornelius
84′W. ClemH. Nemeth
84′TravassosM. Dorgeles
85′Hunor Németh
86′A. Cornelius

Parken Stadium, CopenhagenReferee: J. Kooij

FC Copenhagen 44%
Draw 29%
SC Braga 27%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

9 Shots 6
6 Shots on target 1
36 Possession % 64
3 Corners 3
15 Fouls 18
3 Offsides 3
1 Saves 2
300 Accurate passes 588

FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC CopenhagenDrawSC Braga
Model63.6%24.6%11.7%
Market37.5%30.3%32.2%
Final44.1%28.9%27.1%
Edge+6.5%-1.4%-5.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why FC Copenhagen

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.62.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Copenhagen below our published probability: +6.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Copenhagen ↓ / SC Braga → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 1 15% 11% 2 14% 9% 3 8% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 70%
3+ goals 42%
No goals 10%

FC Copenhagen and SC Braga expected goals

FC Copenhagen 1.75
SC Braga 0.62

Total expected goals: 2.37

FC Copenhagen and SC Braga attack and defence ratings

FC Copenhagen

Attack 1.50 +50%
Defence 0.62 -38%

SC Braga

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 0.71 -29%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga: result vs prediction

FC Copenhagen 3 – 0 SC Braga

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League Stage - 1 fixtures

UEFA Europa Conference League

Before and after this match

FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Copenhagen 44.1% 2.27 +6.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 57.6% 1.73 — —
Both teams to score No 60.6% 1.65 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 72.9% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 FC Copenhagen win 37.6% 2.66 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Copenhagen44.1%
Draw28.9%
SC Braga27.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542.4%
Under 2.557.6%
Both teams to scoreYes39.4%
No60.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)72.9%
12 (either side)71.1%
X2 (draw or away)55.9%
Handicap -1FC Copenhagen win37.6%
Push (exactly one goal)25.9%
Loss36.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-015.3%
2-014.3%
1-111.2%

FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga stats

FC Copenhagen and SC Braga recent form

newest first
FC Copenhagen LWWWWW
SC Braga LDWLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Copenhagen and SC Braga going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Copenhagen record

  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
  • They average 3.7 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

SC Braga record

  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).

FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 37.5%, draw 30.3%, away 32.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.60 3.10 3.04
Bet365 2.50 3.20 2.88
BetVictor 2.45 3.25 2.80
Betano 2.55 3.10 3.00
Betfair 2.50 3.10 2.88
Dafabet 2.55 3.25 2.95
Marathonbet 2.50 2.99 2.93
Pinnacle 2.62 3.15 2.95
SBO 2.38 3.08 2.73
William Hill 2.45 3.00 2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.50 ▲ +0.12
X 3.10 ▼ -0.15
2 2.92 ▼ -0.06

14 snapshots recorded, from .